Posted by antiproperty on August 03, 19101 at 04:25:33:

In Reply to: Kondratieff long wave posted by M.tyge on September 06, 1999 at 02:12:27:

: Kondratieff long waves?
: Does this explain declining commodity prices
: world wide?
: check www.thewriterscoach.com/sample

: I'd like any feedback you have on this
: troubling concept. Apparently, J.
: Schumpeter was quite convinced.

: M.Tyge

I did a study of long waves in the late 1980s. I found a strong wave pattern in US unemployment data, and US inflation data seemed to have a different waveform but was of almost equal frequency.

There are two distinct frequencies: long waves and short waves.

I found that short waves are one-quarter of the roughly 22-year solar-flare cycle, which disturbs weather and therefore agriculture (the biggest industry by far). While many factors can shorten or lengthen the short cycle, five or six whole years should be used to label particular cycles.

Long waves are composed of a whole number (integer) of short cycles. The shortest long cycle was the cycle from roughly 1895 to 1932, made of 7 whole short cycles. The long cycles before and after this had 9 whole short cycles. I did not find enough data to go any further, so I couldn't tell whether the previous long cycles had 11, 13, 15, etc. short cycles.

However, I am convinced very strongly by world events that economic cycles do not influence the possibilities for struggle nor its outcome. Capitalism is not a necessary stage for anything. Communes could have been and indeed were developed at many times in history. In other words, truth or falsehood is relative, and the "objective" is actually just another subjective.

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