Posted by peter burton on May 23, 19100 at 10:03:54:

In Reply to: Kondratieff long wave posted by M.tyge on September 06, 1999 at 02:12:27:

: I am interested in the question of interpretation of Kondratievs waves.
There has been a problem of interpretation
most notably in the work of Ernest Mandel . The long waves
have been given an almost exclusively technological/economistic explanatory underpinning.
Mandel divided them into three stages. Industrial revolution,the motor car and then information
technology under late capitalism each marking successive stages or waves.The problem is
that there has always been an interaction between
political events and economic change, something
Leon Trotsky did not miss in his examination of Kondratievs long waves in the book.The first five years of the communist international volume 1. e.g. The great boom
of 1873-1896 was preceded by the defeat of the Paris commune in 1871. There is a correlation between industrial figures in 1913 which are high
and the outbreak of the first world war.
One could take it further.The events of
May 1968 in France coincide with the coming to fruition of the post war baby boom and the beginning of a decline in industrial production/ security. The point is that what
is crudely called boom and bust coincides with
political dates. This has always been the case.
The defeat of the 1848 revolutions resulted in
recession and low levels of cl struggle until 1873. Marx accordingly confined himself to the library to write capital.
Low levels of cl struggle in the last twenty years arose out of
m unemployment , and the salami style defeat
of key sections of the working cl ,most notably in Great Britain and America under Thatcher and Reagan.

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• Re: Kondratieff long wave caril rodriguez 11:50:46 5/11/101 (0)

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Comments:
: : I am interested in the question of interpretation of Kondratievs waves. : There has been a problem of interpretation : most notably in the work of Ernest Mandel . The long waves : have been given an almost exclusively technological/economistic explanatory underpinning. : Mandel divided them into three stages. Industrial revolution,the motor car and then information : technology under late capitalism each marking successive stages or waves.The problem is : that there has always been an interaction between : political events and economic change, something : Leon Trotsky did not miss in his examination of Kondratievs long waves in the book.The first five years of the communist international volume 1. e.g. The great boom : of 1873-1896 was preceded by the defeat of the Paris commune in 1871. There is a correlation between industrial figures in 1913 which are high : and the outbreak of the first world war. : One could take it further.The events of : May 1968 in France coincide with the coming to fruition of the post war baby boom and the beginning of a decline in industrial production/ security. The point is that what : is crudely called boom and bust coincides with : political dates. This has always been the case. : The defeat of the 1848 revolutions resulted in : recession and low levels of cl struggle until 1873. Marx accordingly confined himself to the library to write capital. : Low levels of cl struggle in the last twenty years arose out of : m unemployment , and the salami style defeat : of key sections of the working cl ,most notably in Great Britain and America under Thatcher and Reagan.

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